Organizational Genetics

The New Normal

Posted on 02. Nov, 2009 by Douglas Swallow in OG Blog

At the forefront of many Owners, CEO’s, and Executives minds are two questions; when will it get back to normal and what will the new normal look like?

We now know, based on the leading economic indicators, nationally the economy bottomed in March of this year with MSA’s around the country bottoming between March and September. For example Las Vegas, Nevada bottomed in May and Boise, Idaho in August. Based on our recovery period analysis of the last nine recessions, over the past 65 years, technical market recovery was consistently achieved two quarters after the quarter in which the market bottomed. Market normalcy or the new normal was achieved in the second quarter following the 1st quarter of GDP growth.

Nationally, this suggests GDP will be positive in 3rd quarter of 2009, which it was, with normalcy achieved by the end of the 1st quarter of 2010. Local MSA’s will achieve technical recovery two quarters after their markets bottom and reach their new normal two quarters thereafter. This suggests the country as a whole will reach its new normal in the Spring of 2010 with most local MSA’s achieving normalcy by the end of 2010.

Technical recovery and normalcy are different. Technical recovery is defined by growth in GDP. Normalcy is defined by the return of the leading economic indicators to historical trend lines and absence of any less than normal leading economic indicators.

To begin to understand when normalcy could be achieved, we developed The Normalcy Report Technology. This report is industry specific. Each industry has 15 to 20 economic indicators, which indicate the degree to which an industry is above or below normal. The OG Normalcy Index, is comprised of 10 performance levels from the worst data point of all time to the best. Data sets are color coded in for easy and rapid interpretation. Industry and market normalcy is when all indices have returned to normal. The following is The OG Normalcy Index.

The OG Normalcy Index

1. Worst data point of all time
2. One of the top five worst data points of all time
3. Unstable
4. Destabilizing / re-stabilizing
5. Stable & below or above normal
6. Normal
7. Stable & better than normal
8. Heating up / cooling down
9. One of the top five best data points of all time
10. Best data point of all time

The following is The OG Normalcy Index for the Real Estate Development Industry in the Boise-Nampa MSA. Boise-Nampa MSA was one of the last markets to enter the recession. It has bottomed and started its recovery.

The OG Normalcy Index – Boise-Nampa MSA
Real Estate Development Industry – Current Status

1. Population — Stable & below normal
2. Employment — Re-stabilizing
3. Mortgage interest rates — Stable & better than normal
4. Real estate financing — One of the top five worst markets of all time
5. New home permits — Re-stabilizing
6. New home sales — One of the top five worst markets of all time
7. Degree of market competitiveness — Stable and below normal
8. Residual land prices per acre — One of the top five worst markets of all time
9. New home construction costs — New Normal
10. Existing home MLS inventory — Re-stabilizing
11. Existing home sales — New Normal
12. Existing home sales days on the market — Re-stabilizing
13. Stock market — New Normal
14. Gas/Oil prices — New Normal
15. Consumer confidence — Re-stabilizing

The OG Normalcy Report is a organizational avionic and control report. Organizational avionics are the set of reports leaders and their managers employ to navigate and optimize organizational performance and minimize risk.

The report includes an introduction, executive summary, overview of each measure and a graph noting its historical data points. Following this section the report concludes with an actionable intelligence summary stating what is going on in each measure and what that means to the industry.

This strategic marketing report is not just another report. It is different. It is designed to empower owners, CEO’s and their executive with actionable intelligence to make better long-term projections, enhance their clarity of understand of the marketplace, and provide an organization with the ability to elevate the quality of its business planning discussions.

To learn more about how your organization can acquire this technology and receive a free sample email me, Douglas Swallow, Founder of Organizational Genetics at doug@orggenetics.com